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Subdued Recovery After Strong Rebound. Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021

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  • Stefan Schiman

Abstract

In spring, the global economy suffered a massive slump due to the pandemic-related protective measures. The loss in value added was partially made up in the summer; in Austria, value added in the third quarter is likely to have grown by more than 10 percent compared with the previous quarter. About half of the crisis-related rise in unemployment was reduced by September. In the fourth quarter, however, economic momentum will slow down markedly as a result of expiring rebound effects (the unwinding of the consumption backlog) and an increase in the number of infections. For 2020, GDP is forecast to fall by 6.8 percent overall compared with 2019, and rise by 4.4 percent in 2021. A new lockdown in autumn could reduce these rates by 2.5 and 4.0 percentage points respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman, 2020. "Subdued Recovery After Strong Rebound. Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 25(10), pages 87-100, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2020:i:10:p:87-100
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Kratena, 2022. "Supply constraints in a heterogenous agents household demand model: a method for assessing the direct impact of the COVID lockdown," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 71-97, February.

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