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Zuversicht in den USA, Unsicherheit im Euro-Raum, fragile Entwicklung in den Schwellenländern. Mittelfristige Prognose für die Weltwirtschaft bis 2020

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  • Stefan Schiman

Abstract

Nach dem Konjunktureinbruch im Jahr 2015 wird Chinas Wirtschaft auch in den kommenden Jahren langsamer wachsen. Dies hält die Rohstoffpreise mittelfristig niedrig und erschwert so die Erholung in Russland und Brasilien, wo zukunftsträchtige Investitionen während der Rohstoffpreishausse versäumt wurden. Auch im Euro-Raum dämpft die geringe Investitionstätigkeit die Wachstumschancen. Das Fehlen wirtschaftspolitischer Koordinationsmechanismen erhöht die Unsicherheit, und die nationalstaatlich orientierte Wirtschaftspolitik verstärkt die Divergenz der Wirtschaftsentwicklung. In den USA sind die Wachstumsmöglichkeiten besser, da die Folgen der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise durch eine geschickt kombinierte Geld- und Fiskalpolitik überwunden wurden und die Erwerbsbevölkerung wächst.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman, 2015. "Zuversicht in den USA, Unsicherheit im Euro-Raum, fragile Entwicklung in den Schwellenländern. Mittelfristige Prognose für die Weltwirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 769-777, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2015:i:10:p:769-777
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2015. "Moderate Growth with High Unemployment. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(27), pages 303-319, December.
    2. Stefan Schiman, 2016. "World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(17), pages 168-177, December.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2016. "Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(6), pages 58-64, June.

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