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Financial Crisis Causes Prolonged Global Economic Downturn. Medium-term Forecast of the World Economy until 2013

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Author Info
Stephan Schulmeister (WIFO)

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Abstract

The forecast is based on the following assumptions about the evolution of important variables until 2013: As a consequence of the depreciation of their financial wealth and real property the savings ratio of the US households will increase from 2 percent in 2008 to 6 percent in 2013. The key interest rates of the euro and the US dollar will be roughly 1 percent and will thus be kept at an extremely low level. The exchange rate of the euro will decline to 1.18 $ by 2013. The oil price will recover and rise to 73 $ per barrel by 2013. The decline of share and house prices will come to a halt in the course of 2009.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by WIFO in its journal WIFO-Monatsberichte.

Volume (Year): 82 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 37-48
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Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2009:i:1:p:37-48

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Related research
Keywords: Weltwirtschaft Finanzkrise USA Japan Deutschland Mittelfristige Prognose;

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-8.

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