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Does the Uncovered Interest Parity Hold? Evidence for Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Deng-kui Si

    (Department of Finance, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China)

  • Chi-Wei Su

    (Department of Finance, Ocean University of China, Shandong, China)

  • Kuo-Ming Lu

    (Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Shuh-Chyi Doong

    (Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan)

Abstract

This study applies nonlinear quantile unit root test with Fourier function to test the validity of long-run uncovered interest parity (UIP) to assess the non-stationary properties of the interest differentials convergence for ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of risk premium convergence is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We examine the validity of UIP from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that UIP holds true for six CEE countries. Our findings point out the risk premium adjustments of the six CEE countries are mean reversion towards UIP equilibrium values in a non-linear way.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng-kui Si & Chi-Wei Su & Kuo-Ming Lu & Shuh-Chyi Doong, 2017. "Does the Uncovered Interest Parity Hold? Evidence for Central and Eastern European Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 24-39, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wei:journl:v:7:y:2017:i:1:p:24-39
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantile Unit Root Test; Structural Change; Trend Breaks; Uncovered Interest Parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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