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Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse bei überraschend hoher Inflation

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  • Kremer Jana
  • Kuckuck Jan
  • Wendorff Karsten

Abstract

The recent high level of inflation temporarily eased government budgets. As a result, conventional estimation methods for cyclical adjustment are likely to temporarily paint an overly favourable picture of the underlying budgetary situation. This also applies to the cyclical adjustment in the German Federal Government’s debt brake, as we argue below. We compare this with our proposal for cyclical adjustment reform: it is likely to be too optimistic in the face of surprisingly high inflation. However, it is very unusual that inflation is underestimated so much. Overall, we continue to consider our proposed reform to be advantageous compared with the current approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Kremer Jana & Kuckuck Jan & Wendorff Karsten, 2023. "Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse bei überraschend hoher Inflation," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 103(10), pages 684-688, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:wirtsc:v:103:y:2023:i:10:p:684-688:n:11
    DOI: 10.2478/wd-2023-0190
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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