Appeasement 2.0 - Russia’s expansion in the Black Sea region as a prelude to dominance in the Mediterranean and the Levant

With Russian troops gathering at the Ukrainian border at the time of writing, Europe and the West are facing a real possibility of a full-scale continental war unprecedented for our generation. The purpose of this paper is to bring forth arguments that the security in the Black Sea area is of vital importance for both the present and future developments in the entire continent. Most recent studies on this topic focus on Russia’s intentions in Ukraine and the weak responses coming from the West. Scholars are divided when it comes to Mr. Putin’s ultimate goals. While some view the recent developments as a bluff, others are concerned that the troop movements might pave the way for a full invasion of Ukraine which will lead to a domino effect. This paper will focus on qualitative analysis. Mr. Putin’s and Russia’s intentions in the Black Sea will be analyzed from primary sources (such as Presidential speeches), while scholarly articles, research papers and policy documents will be used to build a bridge between history, politics and current affairs. The focus will be to establish the extent to which the recent developments in the area are a prelude to an ‘old’ Russian dream of access to the Mediterranean. A compare and contrast approach to appeasement will be used in order to make predictions on the possible outcomes. Our results will show that Mr. Putin is using the Black Sea security as a bargaining chip in his confrontation with the West with the ultimate goal of gaining dominance in the Mediterranean space. This paper will contribute to the recent literature on Eastern European security and how the West continues to misinterpret the dynamics and history of the region.