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Non-Linearity and Non-Stationarity of Exchange Rate Time Series in Three Central-Eastern European Countries Regarding the CHF Currency in 2014 and 2015

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  • Madaras Szilárd

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Socio-Human Sciences and Engineering, Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, Miercurea Ciuc)

  • Györfy Lehel

    (Department of Economics and Business Administration in Hungarian Language, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Babeş–Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca)

Abstract

Our paper deals with the consequences of the Swiss National Bank’s decision in January 2015 related to the CHF/EUR exchange rate regarding the non-linearity of the RON/CHF, HUF/CHF, and PLN/CHF exchange rate time series. The analysis focuses on the 2014 and 2015 years, respectively, using the daily data of the three national banks. Starting out from the conventional unit root tests (ADF, PP, and KPSS), we complete our analysis with the usage of the Threshold Autoregression model (TAR) recommended by Caner and Hansen (2001), testing the non-stationarity and nonlinearity.

Suggested Citation

  • Madaras Szilárd & Györfy Lehel, 2016. "Non-Linearity and Non-Stationarity of Exchange Rate Time Series in Three Central-Eastern European Countries Regarding the CHF Currency in 2014 and 2015," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 33-41, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:auseab:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:33-41:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/eb-2016-0002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time series model; unit root tests; threshold unit root test; exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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