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“Emerging Contrary Result” Phenomenon and Scientific Realism

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  • Mariusz Maziarz

Abstract

The article is aimed at reconsidering the question if the project of econometrics can be read in line with scientific realism. Previously, the methodological literature focused on the philosophy of econometrics, voices criticizing realist interpretations of econometrics were raised. The criticism was aimed at showing that econometric models lack robustness. The use of slightly different methods leads to obtaining different and often contrary models what supposedly undermine the project of econometrics. In this article, I aim at offering a new argument in defence of the current practice of the economists devoted to the empirical branch of macroeconomics. To do so, I apply Mäki’s (2009) model of representation to three case studies of contradictory pairs of econometric models and argue that contrary results are not necessarily a drawback of econometrics. Instead, the seemingly contradictory pairs of models are useful in various contexts constituted by their purpose and audience. Keywords: Econometrics, Emerging contrary result phenomenon, ERR, Minimal scientific realism, Robustness checks, Reinhart-Rogoff controversy. JEL: B41, C18, C82.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Maziarz, 2021. "“Emerging Contrary Result” Phenomenon and Scientific Realism," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 68(3), pages 253-265.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:68:y:2021:i:3:p:253-265:id:626
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    File URL: https://panoeconomicus.org/index.php/jorunal/article/view/626/652
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    Keywords

    Econometrics; Emerging contrary result phenomenon; ERR; Minimal scientific realism; Robustness checks; Reinhart-Rogoff controversy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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