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Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century

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  • Philip Rees

Abstract

This discussion piece is an extended review of the work on projecting the world’s population and human capital by country conducted by the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC). The project was led by Wolfgang Lutz, and its outcomes were published by Oxford University Press in a book that appeared in 2014. Using statistics from the book and elsewhere, this article starts with an overview of the development of educational attainment. The role that education plays in the WIC2014 model is identified. Definitions of ‘multi-dimensional’, ‘multi-state’, and ‘micro-simulation’ are offered, and are used to characterise the model. A thumbnail sketch of the main methods used in the projections is given. The final section sets out a possible agenda for the future development of the WIC2014 model. This review is intended to help readers tackle the more than 1,000 pages of argument and analysis in the book, which represents a major contribution to demographic research in the 21st century.

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  • Philip Rees, 2018. "Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 037-053.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:16:y:2018:i:1:p:037-053
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    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    3. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    4. Anne GOUJON & Samir K. C. & Markus SPERINGER & Bilal BARAKAT & Michaela POTANCOKOVÀ, 2016. "A Harmonized Dataset on Global Educational Attainment between 1970 and 2060 - An Analytical Window into Recent Trends and Future Prospects in Human Capital Development," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 315-363, September.
    5. Wolfgang Lutz, 2013. "Demographic Metabolism: A Predictive Theory of Socioeconomic Change," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38, pages 283-301, February.
    6. Samir KC & Marcus Wurzer & Markus Speringer & Wolfgang Lutz, 2018. "Future population and human capital in heterogeneous India," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 115(33), pages 8328-8333, August.
    7. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "The Family and the State," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Gary S. Becker, 1962. "Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Investment in Human Beings, pages 9-49, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    10. Aude Bernard & Martin Bell, 2018. "Educational selectivity of internal migrants: A global assessment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(29), pages 835-854.
    11. Erich Striessnig & Wolfgang Lutz, 2013. "Can below-replacement fertility be desirable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 409-425, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Labor Force Aging and the Composition of Regional Human Capital," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 97(2), pages 140-163, March.

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