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A Quantitative Evaluation of INDUSTRIA 4.0 Through Simulation of QUEST III Italia

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  • Clio Ciaschini

    (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona)

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative macroeconomic evaluation of the national INDUSTRIA 4.0 plan, the set of Industry 4.0 policy measures implemented by the Italian government. The evaluation is performed using the European Commission’s endogenous growth model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy. Innovation of process- and skill-biased technical change characterizes the fourth industrial revolution and determines human capital formation and the spillover of knowledge accumulation. A set of model parameters and variants has been determined, and four policy scenarios are taken into account under two denominations: Innovative Investments and Skill Achievements. The Italian economy persists in its path of around zero growth, on which it has been for a while. The main results highlight a decade of weak growth, without strong innovation policy interventions, and a low profile and precarious outcomes on the labour side.

Suggested Citation

  • Clio Ciaschini, 2022. "A Quantitative Evaluation of INDUSTRIA 4.0 Through Simulation of QUEST III Italia," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 130(3), pages 251-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:vep:journl:y:2022:v:130:i:3:p:251-292
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    Keywords

    INDUSTRIA 4.0; QUEST III; R&D spillover of knowledge; DSGE; Skill-biased technical change; Wage premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

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