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Forecasts for activity rate on labour market in Romania using econometric models

Author

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  • Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies,National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection)

Abstract

The paper investigates congruence between several empirical measures of the rate of informality using household survey data of the Republic of Moldova for 2012. Thirty-two percent of the economically active are informal according to at least one definition, and about 30% are informal according to three measures. Regression analysis is used to shed further light on differences in these measures. The objectives of the empirical analysis are to address the hypothesis that different empirical measures of informality are coincident (if different measures are capturing the same group of workers) and to assess using probit regression analysis, whether different individual characteristics have a greater association with different measures of informality. If there is only partial coincidence between different measures, which groups are more likely to be informal under one definition compared to another? The main conclusion to be drawn from this research is that the different measures of informality capture in part different groups of workers. It cannot be assumed that alternative measures are broadly consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu, 2015. "Forecasts for activity rate on labour market in Romania using econometric models," HOLISTICA Journal of Business and Public Administration, Association Holistic Research Academic (HoRA), vol. 6(2), pages 84-100, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:urn:urnste:v:6:y:2015:i:2:p:84-100
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    informal employment; social protection; probit models; Republic of Moldova;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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