Measuring poverty in Timor-Leste:using census data to develop a national Multidimensional Poverty Index

This paper presents work towards the development of a national Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste. The Global Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste, based on the Demographic and Health Survey, had been calculated previously, but because of sample size limitations, poverty estimates are only reliable for higher levels of administrative units. This paper’s unique contribution is in demonstrating how this hurdle can be overcome by calculating a census-based Multidimensional Poverty Index that allows for robust estimates at lower subnational levels. By using data from the previous two censuses, the study shows a decline in multidimensional poverty across the country, although persistent deprivations remain in some areas. In addition to a discussion on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index, the paper also includes reviews of previous income/consumption-based poverty studies. These survey-based poverty estimates indicate the existence of an “East-West divide” at the highest subnational level, with more households in the western parts of Timor-Leste experiencing poverty than in the eastern parts. The focus of this study is on lower administrative units of the country which do not replicate those findings. The picture emerging is rather one of hard-to-reach areas away from urban centres being most at risk of being left behind. The study contributes to an evergrowing body of research on poverty measures in the context of countries where reliable data at the subnational level are often scarce. The results and applied methodology presented are, therefore, relevant beyond the immediate country context.