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Charting the Future Global Status of Oil and Natural Gas using Grey Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Fatemeh Dehdar

    (Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya)

  • Su-Fei Yap

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya)

  • M.S. Naghavi

    (Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya)

  • M. Mahdi Dehdar

    (Department of Economics, Persian Gulf University, Iran)

Abstract

This study adopts Grey Forecasting offering an alternative method of forecasting oil and natural gas production and consumption. The Accumulated Generation Operation (AGO) decreases the randomness of data which is one of its critical features. Employing the GM (1, 1) model, the results show that the world will face an oil deficit of 10 million barrels daily by 2025 and a gas surplus of 30 billion cubic meters. Policy makers are warned to change the existing increasing consumption practices for oil and natural gas as well as to seek new solutions for the short-term, medium-term and long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemeh Dehdar & Su-Fei Yap & M.S. Naghavi & M. Mahdi Dehdar, 2016. "Charting the Future Global Status of Oil and Natural Gas using Grey Forecasting," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 8(3), pages 105-125, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:umk:journl:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:105-125
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    File URL: http://ijie.um.edu.my/filebank/published_article/10060/Charting%20the%20Future%20Global%20Status%20of%20Oil%20and%20Natural%20Gas%20using%20Grey%20Forecasting.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy economics; energy policy; grey forecasting; grey model; macroeconomics forecasting; world oil and natural gas production and consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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