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How Does the Interest Rate Influence the Exchange Rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Hashchyshyn

    (Kyiv School of Economics)

  • Kateryna Marushchak

    (Kyiv School of Economics)

  • Oleksandr Sukhomlyn

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Andrii Tarasenko

    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract

Understanding the effect of increasing the key policy rate on the exchange rate of the national currency remains one of the most critical issues for central banks. The goal of this study is to infer about the signs and the magnitude of this impact using existing studies conducted for 30 countries and aggregating estimates applying the meta-analysis procedure. Results indicate that the short-term impact of interest rate changes on the exchange rate is positive and statistically significant, although the economic significance is weak, while the longterm relationship is found to be insignificant. The analyzed studies do not reveal any evidence of publication bias, which contributes to the validity of empirical findings. The received results conclude that there might be a short-term appreciation of the hryvnia in response to an increase in the key policy rate in Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Hashchyshyn & Kateryna Marushchak & Oleksandr Sukhomlyn & Andrii Tarasenko, 2020. "How Does the Interest Rate Influence the Exchange Rate?," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 250, pages 4-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2020:i:250:p:4-14
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2020.250.01
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    File URL: https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2020/250/01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; exchange rate; interest rate; key policy rate; meta-analysis; transmission mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • Y90 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Other - - - Other

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