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How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function

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  • Evan K. Rose
  • Yotam Shem-Tov

Abstract

We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina’s sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan K. Rose & Yotam Shem-Tov, 2021. "How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3302-3356.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/716561
    DOI: 10.1086/716561
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Jordan & Ezra Karger & Derek Neal, 2021. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions," Working Paper Series WP 2022-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 12 Feb 2022.
    2. Yotam Shem‐Tov & Steven Raphael & Alissa Skog, 2024. "Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make‐it‐Right Program," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(1), pages 61-78, January.
    3. Steeve Marchand & Guy Lacroix & William Arbour, 2023. "Prison rehabilitation programs and recidivism: evidence from variations in availability," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2023n07, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Escobar, Maria A. & Tobón, Santiago & Vanegas-Arias, Martín, 2023. "Production and persistence of criminal skills: Evidence from a high-crime context," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Maxim N. Massenkoff & Evan K. Rose, 2022. "Family Formation and Crime," NBER Working Papers 30385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pradhi Aggarwal & Alec Brandon & Ariel Goldszmidt & Justin Holz & John List & Ian Muir & Gregory Sun & Thomas Yu, 2022. "High-frequency location data shows that race affects the likelihood of being stopped and fined for speeding," Natural Field Experiments 00764, The Field Experiments Website.
    7. Manudeep Bhuller & Henrik Sigstad, 2022. "2SLS with Multiple Treatments," Papers 2205.07836, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    8. Albright, Alex, 2022. "No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program," SocArXiv 42pbz, Center for Open Science.
    9. Bhuller, Manudeep & Khoury, Laura & Løken, Katrine V., 2021. "Prison, Mental Health and Family Spillovers," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 19/2021, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    10. Santiago Tobón Zapata & Maria Antonia Escobar Bernal & Martin Vanegas Arias, 2021. "Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 19297, Universidad EAFIT.
    11. William Arbour & Steeve Marchand, 2022. "Parole, Recidivism, and the Role of Supervised Transition," Working Papers tecipa-725, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

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