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The Macroeconomic News Cycle and Uncertainty Resolution

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  • Arjun Chatrath

    (University of Portland)

  • Rohan Christie-David

    (University of Louisville)

  • William T. Moore

    (University of South Carolina)

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    Abstract

    We examine the behavior of return volatility and trading at 5-minute intervals in the treasury bond futures market in the context of the monthly macroeconomic news cycle. We advance and confirm the hypothesis that volatility and trading activity are higher in the first half of the month. The data indicate that these patterns arise from at least two sources: (1) a higher level of uncertainty regarding the value of news in announcements in the first half of the month, and (2) improvement in efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts from the first to the second half of the month.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

    Volume (Year): 79 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 2633-2658

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    Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:5:p:2633-2658

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    Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/

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