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The Fear and Exuberance from Implied Volatility of S&P 100 Index Options

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Author Info
Cheekiat Low (National University of Singapore)
Abstract

I study the relation between option traders' risk perception and contemporaneous market conditions. Risk perception tends to increase when downside volatility increases more than upside volatility. The risk-return relation is asymmetric and nonlinear, best described as a downward-sloping reclined S-curve. That prior gains appear to have some mitigating effect on the fear of loss relative to prior losses points to a "house money" effect. Broader market conditions influence the perception of risk in a manner consistent with the "keeping up with the Joneses" effect. Leverage is a weak explanation for the risk-return relation.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 527-546
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:77:y:2004:i:3:p:527-546

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