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The Impact of Malaria Eradication on Fertility

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  • Adrienne M. Lucas

Abstract

The malaria eradication campaign that started in Sri Lanka in the late 1940s virtually eliminated malaria transmission on the island. I use the preeradication differences in malaria endemicity within Sri Lanka to identify the effect of malaria eradication on fertility and child survival. Malaria eradication increased the number of live births through increasing age-specific fertility and causing an earlier first birth. The effect of malaria on the transition time to higher-order births is inconclusive. Malaria could directly or indirectly affect survival probabilities of live births. I exploit the particular epidemiology of malaria that causes more severe sequelae during an initial pregnancy. I find differential changes in survival probabilities by birth order that are most likely due to the direct in utero effects of malaria. The increase in population growth after malaria eradication reconciles the contradictory findings in the macroeconomic and microeconomic literatures: the increased productivity and education from malaria eradication will only appear in aggregate measures like GDP per capita after a delay because of the initial increase in the population size.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/10.1086/669261
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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/full/10.1086/669261
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Economic Development and Cultural Change.

Volume (Year): 61 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 607 - 631

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:doi:10.1086/669261

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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/EDCC/

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Cited by:
  1. David Cutler & Winnie Fung & Michael Kremer & Monica Singhal & Tom Vogl, 2007. "Mosquitoes: The Long-term Effects of Malaria Eradication in India," NBER Working Papers 13539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nava Ashraf & Günther Fink & David N. Weil, 2010. "Evaluating the Effects of Large Scale Health Interventions in Developing Countries: The Zambian Malaria Initiative," NBER Working Papers 16069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Quamrul H. Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David N. Weil, 2009. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 157-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Center for Development Economics 2011-08, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
  5. William W. Olney, 2011. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  6. David Cutler & Winnie Fung & Michael Kremer & Monica Singhal & Tom Vogl, 2010. "Early-Life Malaria Exposure and Adult Outcomes: Evidence from Malaria Eradication in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 72-94, April.

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