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Can Observers Predict Trustworthiness?

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  • Michèle Belot

    (Oxford University)

  • V. Bhaskar

    (University College London)

  • Jeroen van de Ven

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We investigate whether experimental subjects can predict behavior in a prisoner's dilemma played on a TV show. Subjects report probabilistic beliefs that a player cooperates, before and after the players communicate. Subjects correctly predict that women and players who make a voluntary promise are more likely to cooperate. They are able to distinguish truth from lies when a player is asked about her intentions by the host. Subjects are to some extent able to predict behavior; their beliefs are 7~percentage points higher for cooperators than for defectors. We also study their Bayesian updating. Beliefs do not satisfy the martingale property and display mean reversion. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 94 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 246-259

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:94:y:2012:i:1:p:246-259

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Cited by:
  1. Irlenbusch, Bernd & Ter Meer, Janna, 2013. "Fooling the Nice Guys: Explaining receiver credulity in a public good game with lying and punishment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 321-327.
  2. Bernd Irlenbusch & Janna Ter Meer, 2012. "Fooling the Nice Guys: The effect of lying about contributions on public good provision and punishment," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences 03-11, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
  3. Eric Schniter & Timothy Shields, 2013. "Recalibrational Emotions and the Regulation of Trust-Based Behaviors," Working Papers, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute 13-16, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  4. Gurevich, Gregory & Kliger, Doron, 2013. "The Manipulation: Socio-economic decision making," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 171-184.

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