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Finite Sample Bias In Iv Estimation Of Intertemporal Labor Supply Models: Is The Intertemporal Substitution Elasticity Really Small?

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Chul-In Lee

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Abstract

The empirical literature on intertemporal labor supply behavior documents that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor supply is very low, with a plausible range of zero to 0.2. Drawing upon the literature on the distribution of instrumental variables (IV) estimators, this paper demonstrates that this conventional wisdom is erroneous because it does not take into account the severe finite sample bias in these estimates that arise from weak instruments. This paper adopts several approaches to adjust for the problems induced by these weak instruments. The empirical results show that, when uncorrected for finite sample bias, the two-stage least-squares (2SLS) estimate of the elasticity is essentially zero, as in most of the previous studies, with its valid confidence interval being open-ended, [-∞, +∞]. However, when corrected for finite sample bias, the estimate becomes approximately 0.5 with a much tighter confidence interval. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 83 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 638-646
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:4:p:638-646

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  1. Michelacci, Claudio & Pijoan-Mas, Josep, 2007. "The Effects of Labor Market Conditions on Working Time: the US-EU Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 6314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Contreras, Juan & Sinclair, Sven, 2008. "Labor supply response in macroeconomic models: Assessing the empirical validity of the intertemporal labor supply response from a stochastic overlapping generations model with incomplete markets," MPRA Paper 10533, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2007. "The labor market effects of technology shocks," Banco de España Working Papers 0719, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?," NBER Working Papers 14208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Duncan, Denvil & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 4257, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  6. Daniel Aaronson & Eric French, 2002. "The effects of progressive taxation on labor supply when hours and wages are jointly determined," Working Paper Series WP-02-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  7. Steven J. Haider & David S. Loughran, 2003. "How Important Are Wages to the Elderly? Evidence from the New Beneficiary Data System and the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers wp049, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  8. Denvil Duncan & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0906, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
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