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Derivation of a Leading Index for the United States Using Kalman Filters

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  • Martin, Vance L

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to construct a leading index for the United States by deriving a set of weights based on Kalman filters. The weights have certain optimality properties and are related to the existing weighting methods of A. F. Burns and W. C. Mitchell (1946), S. H. Hymans (1973), and A. J. Auerbach (1982). The Kalman filter leading index is compared with the CIBCR leading composite index and an index suggested by Auerbach by subjecting all indexes to a number of tests. The results of the tests are mixed, but suggest that the use of Kalman filters as a way of constructing leading indexes is encouraging. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.

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  • Martin, Vance L, 1990. "Derivation of a Leading Index for the United States Using Kalman Filters," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 657-663, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:72:y:1990:i:4:p:657-63
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen K. McNees & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1991. "\"Whither New England\"?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 11-26.
    2. Mapa, Dennis S. & Simbulan, Maria Christina, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting Movements of the Philippine Economy using the Dynamic Factor Models (DFM)," MPRA Paper 54478, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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