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The U.S. Budget Deficit and the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar

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Author Info
Melvin, Michael
Schlagenhauf, Don
Talu, Ayhan

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Abstract

This paper presents and estimates a simple model of real exchange rate determination that includes the expected future U.S. federal budget deficit as a determinant. The model is applied to the real value of the dollar versus the mark, yen, and pound over the period June 1974-October 1987. The estimates suggest that rapid increases in the expected future deficit in the early 1980s contributed to a rapid appreciation of the dollar. The fall in the value of the dollar in the spring of 1985 appears to be due to a fall in the expected budget deficit. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 500-505
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:3:p:500-505

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