Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Deciphering the Message in Japanese Deflation Dynamics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paul D. McNelis

    (Department of Economics Georgetown University Washington, DC 20057 USA,)

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (Department of Economics Keio University 2-15-45 Mita Minata-Ku Tokyo 10883-45 Japan,)

Abstract

This paper uses linear and nonlinear neural network regime-switching (NNRS) models to decipher the message in Japanese deflation dynamics and thus identify the channels through which Japan's economy can escape its deflationary spiral. The NNRS model is superior to a linear model with respect to in-sample specification tests and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. The most important variables affecting inflation are interest rates and the output gap. Given the zero lower bound on interest rates, it will be most effective to end Japan's deflationary cycle with policies that reverse the output gap by stimulating investment. Copyright (c) 2005 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/1535351044193321
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 3 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 49-70

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:3:y:2004:i:2:p:49-70

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

Order Information:
Web: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/loi/asep

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bigsten, Arne, 2004. "Can Japan Make a Comeback?," Working Papers in Economics 122, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:3:y:2004:i:2:p:49-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.