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“Mathiness” ve İstatistik, Ulusal Gelir Hesapları, Matematik ve Ekonometri Konusunda Keynes

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  • Ercan Uygur

    (Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, Ankara , Turkey)

Abstract

In a paper and some “blog” essays in 2015, Paul Romer expressed the inappropriate use of mathematics in economics with the term “mathiness” and started a debate. Although John Maynard Keynes was closely and more widely involved in this issue, there was no reference to him in this debate. What were the views of Keynes on the use of statistics, national-income accounts, mathematics and econometrics in economics? How can we evaluate his approach to this matter? The first aim of this paper is to try to answer these and similar questions. The second aim is to look into Keynes’s contributions to--and his influence on--the use in economics of probability, index numbers and statistics in general; national-income accounts and other economic statistics; econometrics; and institutions related to economics and statistics. A third aim is to explain and evaluate the debates over (i) the quantity of money and Carli and Jevons price indices, and (ii) whether fiscal multiplier effects are nominal or real. Paul Romer, 2015’teki bir makalesinde ve bazı “blog” yazılarında iktisatta matematiğin uygunsuz kullanımını “mathiness” kavramı ile ifade etti ve bir tartışma başlattı. Bu konunun yakından ve daha geniş olarak içinde olmasına karşılık, John Maynard Keynes’e bu tartışmalarda atıf yapılmadı. Keynes’in istatistik, ulusal gelir hesapları, matematik, ekonometri gibi yöntemlerin iktisatta kullanılmasıyla ilgili görüşleri nedir? Bu konuda yaklaşımını nasıl değerlendirebiliriz? Bu yazının birinci amacı, bu ve benzeri sorulara yanıt vermeye çalışmaktır. Đkinci amaç, Keynes’in olasılık, endeks sayıları ve genel olarak istatistiğe; ulusal gelir hesapları ve diğer ekonomik istatistiklere; ekonometriye; ekonomiyle ve istatistiklerle ilgili kurumlara yaptığı katkıları ve etkileri incelemektir. Bir üçüncü amaç, (i) para miktarı ile Carli ve Jevons fiyat endeksleri, ve (ii) mali çarpan etkisinin nominal mi, reel mi olduğu konularındaki tartışmaları açıklamak ve irdelemektir.

Suggested Citation

  • Ercan Uygur, 2014. "“Mathiness” ve İstatistik, Ulusal Gelir Hesapları, Matematik ve Ekonometri Konusunda Keynes," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 67-96, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tek:journl:v:3:y:2014:i:2:p:67-96
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    Keywords

    “Mathiness”; Keynes; istatistik ve olasılık; endeks sayıları ve para miktarı; iktisatta matematik; ekonometrik yöntemler; ulusal gelir hesapları; nominal çarpan etkisi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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