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Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

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  • Zeynep Kantur
  • Gulserim Ozcan

Abstract

This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with stringency index and unemployment-related search index. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeynep Kantur & Gulserim Ozcan, 2021. "Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 21(3), pages 71-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:21:y:2021:i:3:p:71-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Gold & Anup Phayal & Brandon Prins, 2023. "The unexpected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime crime: Evidence from Indonesia and Nigeria," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 7-23, March.
    2. Anete Brinke & Ludmila Fadejeva & Boriss Siliverstovs & Kārlis Vilerts, 2023. "Assessing the informational content of card transactions for nowcasting retail trade: Evidence for Latvia," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 566-577, April.
    3. Lyudmil Naydenov, 2022. "Household Expenditure During A Pandemic: Covid-19 And The Case Of Bulgaria," Business Management, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4 Year 20, pages 18-34.
    4. Ludmila Fadejeva & Boriss Siliverstovs & Karlis Vilerts & Anete Brinke, 2022. "Consumer Spending in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Card Transactions in Latvia," Discussion Papers 2022/01, Latvijas Banka.

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