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A measure of Turkey's sovereign and banking sector credit risk: Asset swap spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Doruk Kucuksarac
  • Abdullah Kazdal
  • Halil Ibrahim Korkmaz
  • Yigit Onay

Abstract

The existence of the credit derivatives written on the eurobonds such as credit default swaps or asset swaps allows policymakers and investors to monitor the evolvement of credit risk. However, these instruments are mostly available in advanced economies, whereas the market for credit derivatives in emerging market countries, including Turkey, is limited in terms of liquidity and maturity. In this regard, this study aims to construct a proxy for the credit risk of the Turkish Treasury and banking sector in international markets by calculating asset swap spread for US dollar-denominated fixed coupon eurobonds, which requires a robust estimation of the relevant yield curves. The study firstly presents the estimation of the sovereign and banking sector yield curves and then constructs a synthetic asset swap structure to obtain embedded credit risk premia in the eurobond curves. Our findings show that the proposed credit risk indicator is vastly correlated with credit default swap premium. In addition to this, estimated eurobond curves are also useful for monitoring borrowing cost dynamics of the Turkish Treasury and banking sector in international markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Doruk Kucuksarac & Abdullah Kazdal & Halil Ibrahim Korkmaz & Yigit Onay, 2021. "A measure of Turkey's sovereign and banking sector credit risk: Asset swap spreads," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 21(2), pages 49-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:21:y:2021:i:2:p:49-57
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Florent Kanga GBONGUE & Lambert N’Galadjo BAMBA, 2023. "Le modèle hybride de la structure par terme des primes souveraines de crédit et de liquidité dans la zone UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 57, pages 101-145.
    2. Mehmet Selman Colak & Sumeyra Korkmaz & Huseyin Ozturk & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2024. "It Is Not Your Risk but It Is Your Problem: A Spatial Analysis of Emerging Market Credit Default Swap Premia," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2406, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Asset swap spread; Yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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