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News impact for Turkish food prices

Author

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  • Meltem Chadwick
  • Meltem Bastan

Abstract

Asymmetric volatility is a widely encountered concept particularly in financial series. It refers to the case that "bad news" generates more volatility than "good news" of equal magnitude. In an inflationary environment "bad news" is disclosed as increasing inflation that is expected to generate higher volatility. The present article examines whether unexpected price changes affect the volatility of prices asymmetrically for 90 retail food items of the Turkish consumer price index. These 90 food items have a weight of approximately 20 percent in headline consumer price index (CPI). We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) model to extract asymmetric volatility, using monthly data between January 2003 and January 2017. Our results reveal that volatility of food prices respond asymmetrically to unexpected price shocks for 62 percent of the retail food items.

Suggested Citation

  • Meltem Chadwick & Meltem Bastan, 2017. "News impact for Turkish food prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(2), pages 1-55–76.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:55-76
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Meller, Leandro & Larrosa, Juan M.C. & Delbianco, Fernando & Ramírez Muñoz de Toro, Gonzalo & Uriarte, Juan Ignacio, 2021. "Inflación semanal en galletitas: un enfoque de datos de panel. || Weekly Cookie Inflation: A Panel Data Approach," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 31(1), pages 417-440, June.
    2. Kurmas Akdogan, 2018. "Mean-reversion and structural change in European food prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 163-173.
    3. Meltem Chadwick, 2023. "The significance of terms of trade shocks for retail food prices in Turkey," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 915-940, October.

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