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Turkiye'de Cekirdek Enflasyon : Ekonometrik Bir Yaklasim

Author

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  • Ozlem Yigit
  • Atilla Gokce

Abstract

In this paper, core inflation in the Turkish Economy is estimated using the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach proposed by Quah and Vahey (1995). One of the main problems for a monetary authority with an explicit or implicit goal of price stability is to have a proper assessment of the impact of external shocks on final domestic prices. In order to explain this impact, Quah and Vahey’s model were extended to include import prices. Assuming that movements in headline inflation are stemmed from supply, import price, and demand shocks, core inflation is estimated as a component of headline inflation, which has no effect on real output in the long-run or, which is driven by demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozlem Yigit & Atilla Gokce, 2012. "Turkiye'de Cekirdek Enflasyon : Ekonometrik Bir Yaklasim," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(1), pages 37-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:12:y:2012:i:1:p:37-51
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    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2012/Volume+12-1/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Core inflation; SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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