Contouring the Cataclysm: A Geographical Analysis of the Effects of the Minoan Eruption of the Santorini Volcano

This study is a step forward in understanding the palaeoenvironmental effects of the Minoan eruption of Santorini (1627–1600 BCE). We employ geostatistics to produce a prediction map for the thickness of the tephra fallout over the Eastern Mediterranean, and we reconstruct the effects by comparisons with recent eruption analogues. Based on the geostatistical map, the amount of environmental disruption over so far undocumented areas is estimated by comparison with archaeological sites where emplaced Minoan tephra has been recorded before. Nevertheless, independent field evidence suggest that the environment responded differently in places, occasionally posing challenges to the presented interpolation. A second line of evidence coming from contemporaneous fluvial archives provides clues for a widespread ‘Minoan flood’ over a large part of the Eastern Mediterranean, associated with the eruption itself. This simultaneous hydrological event may have had a counterbalancing effect on the impacts of the Minoan tephra cover, and could explain the sporadic discrepancies between the predicted effects and the palaeoenvironmental evidence. Traces of the effects of this extraordinary volcanic event are also sought in the regional Late Bronze Age literature.