IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/uaajxx/v21y2017i3p397-416.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme Value Analysis of Mortality at the Oldest Ages: A Case Study Based on Individual Ages at Death

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Gbari
  • Michel Poulain
  • Luc Dal
  • Michel Denuit

Abstract

In this article, the force of mortality at the oldest ages is studied using the statistical tools from extreme value theory. A unique data basis recording all individual ages at death above 95 for extinct cohorts born in Belgium between 1886 and 1904 is used to illustrate the relevance of the proposed approach. No leveling off in the force of mortality at the oldest ages is found, and the analysis supports the existence of an upper limit to human lifetime for these cohorts. Therefore, assuming that the force of mortality becomes ultimately constant, that is, that the remaining lifetime tends to the Negative Exponential distribution as the attained age grows is a conservative strategy for managing life annuities.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Gbari & Michel Poulain & Luc Dal & Michel Denuit, 2017. "Extreme Value Analysis of Mortality at the Oldest Ages: A Case Study Based on Individual Ages at Death," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 397-416, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:397-416
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2017.1301260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10920277.2017.1301260
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10920277.2017.1301260?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    2. Huang, Fei & Maller, Ross & Ning, Xu, 2020. "Modelling life tables with advanced ages: An extreme value theory approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 95-115.
    3. Jackie Li & Jia Liu, 2020. "A modified extreme value perspective on best-performance life expectancy," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 345-375, December.
    4. Anthony Medford & James W Vaupel, 2019. "Human lifespan records are not remarkable but their durations are," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-9, March.
    5. Jesson J. Einmahl & John H. J. Einmahl & Laurens de Haan, 2019. "Limits to Human Life Span Through Extreme Value Theory," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(527), pages 1075-1080, July.
    6. Linh Hoang Khanh Dang & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & France Meslé & Nadine Ouellette & Jean-Marie Robine & Jacques Vallin, 2023. "The question of the human mortality plateau: Contrasting insights by longevity pioneers," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(11), pages 321-338.
    7. Anthony Medford & James W. Vaupel, 2020. "Extremes are not normal: a reminder to demographers," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 91-106, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:397-416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/uaaj .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.