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Mortality Compression and Longevity Risk

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  • Jack Yue

Abstract

Mortality improvements, especially of the elderly, have been a common phenomenon since the end of World War II. The longevity risk becomes a major concern in many countries because of underestimating the scale and speed of prolonged life. In this study we explore the increasing life expectancy by examining the basic properties of survival curves. Specifically, we check if there are signs of mortality compression (i.e., rectangularization of the survival curve) and evaluate what it means to designing annuity products. Based on the raw mortality rates, we propose an approach to verify if there is mortality compression. We then apply the proposed method to the mortality rates of Japan, Sweden, and the United States, using the Human Mortality Database. Unlike previous results using the graduated mortality rates, we found no obvious signs that mortality improvements are slowing down. This indicates that human longevity is likely to increase, and longevity risk should be seriously considered in pricing annuity products.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Yue, 2012. "Mortality Compression and Longevity Risk," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 434-448.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:434-448
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2012.10597641
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    Cited by:

    1. David Blake & Marco Morales & Enrico Biffis & Yijia Lin & Andreas Milidonis, 2017. "Special Edition: Longevity 10 – The Tenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 515-532, April.
    2. Chong It Tan & Jackie Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Uditha Balasooriya, 2016. "Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 307-331, December.
    3. Wang, Hsin-Chung & Yue, Ching-Syang Jack & Chong, Chen-Tai, 2018. "Mortality models and longevity risk for small populations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 351-359.
    4. Nico Keilman & Dinh Q. Pham & Astri Syse, 2018. "Mortality shifts and mortality compression. The case of Norway, 1900-2060," Discussion Papers 884, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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