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Modelling Complex Activity‐Travel Scheduling Decisions: Procedure for the Simultaneous Estimation of Activity Generation and Duration Functions

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  • Linda Nijland
  • Theo Arentze
  • Aloys Borgers
  • Harry Timmermans

Abstract

Activity generation is a key factor in individual's choices of trip frequency and trip purpose. This paper describes the results of an experiment conducted to estimate functions of several temporal factors on individuals' propensity to schedule a given activity on a given day. The theory on which the experimental design is based states that the probability of scheduling an activity is a complex and continuous function of how long ago the activity was lastly performed, the duration constraints for the activity and the amount of available time in the activity schedule of the day considered. Aurora, an existing model of activity scheduling, assumes S‐shaped utility functions for the history as well as the duration functions, whereas most time‐use studies assume monotonically decreasing marginal utilities. The stated‐choice experiment involves a range of flexible activities and a large sample of individuals to measure the utility effects of a set of carefully chosen levels for the factors and tests these specific assumptions. The results suggest that the amount of discretionary time on a day has no significant impact on the scheduling decisions provided that enough time is available for the activity. The effects of other factors are as expected and show diminishing marginal utilities. We find mixed evidence for an initial phase of increasing marginal returns as assumed in an S‐shaped function.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda Nijland & Theo Arentze & Aloys Borgers & Harry Timmermans, 2011. "Modelling Complex Activity‐Travel Scheduling Decisions: Procedure for the Simultaneous Estimation of Activity Generation and Duration Functions," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 399-418.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:transr:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:399-418
    DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2010.520827
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    Cited by:

    1. Linda Nijland & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 71-87, January.
    2. Le Vine, Scott & Adamou, Orestes & Polak, John, 2014. "Predicting new forms of activity/mobility patterns enabled by shared-mobility services through a needs-based stated-response method: Case study of grocery shopping," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 60-68.
    3. Huiye Ma & Nicole Ronald & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2013. "Negotiating on location, timing, duration, and participant in agent-mediated joint activity-travel scheduling," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 427-451, October.

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