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Online Prediction of Travel Time: Experience From a Pilot Trial

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  • Satu Innamaa

Abstract

This study was designed to present an online model which predicted travel times on an interurban two-lane two-way highway section on the basis of field measurements. The study included two parts: an evaluation of the performance of the model, and an examination of the possibility to improve the model in case of unsatisfactory performance. The model was based on MLP neural networks. The main results of the evaluation showed that the prediction model outperformed a non-predictive system. However, the model for one section had not performed as well during the trial period as was expected. This might be due to a slight change in the congestion phenomenon. After further development, the findings showed that the model could be improved considerably with new data. The main implication was that even a simple prediction model improves the quality of travel time information substantially, compared to estimates based directly on the latest measurements.

Suggested Citation

  • Satu Innamaa, 2007. "Online Prediction of Travel Time: Experience From a Pilot Trial," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2-3), pages 271-287.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:30:y:2007:i:2-3:p:271-287
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060701395535
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