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Business cycle synchronization among the US states: spatial effects and regional determinants

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  • Giulio Cainelli
  • Claudio Lupi
  • Myriam Tabasso

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent and determinants of business cycle synchronization among the US states during the period 2002–11. Phase synchronization is not measured based on one national reference series, but rather is assessed using pairwise synchronization indicators computed over the business cycles of all US state pairs. The analysis is based on a natural and intuitive measure of synchronization: the fraction of observations when the cyclical phase is the same for both states in each state pair. Synchronization indicators have a spatially correlated structure. The economic determinants of synchronization are studied using spatial econometric models. Business cycles are more synchronized between those states characterized by strong commercial links and a similar structure in terms of industrialization, labour market characteristics and openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Cainelli & Claudio Lupi & Myriam Tabasso, 2021. "Business cycle synchronization among the US states: spatial effects and regional determinants," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 397-415, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:16:y:2021:i:3:p:397-415
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2020.1860252
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    Cited by:

    1. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    2. Wall, Howard, 2023. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), January.
    3. López, María del Carmen Delgado & Fonseca-Zendejas, Alejandro Steven, 2023. "Analysis of the intersectoral synchronization of the Mexican economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 225-235.

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