Challenges associated with the BRI: a review of recent economics literature

Economic trade theory suggests that the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) can lead to more trade and increases in welfare. However, this can also lead to various challenges. In this paper, we use recent literature in economics to identify three such challenges. The first is that there is increasing evidence of malinvestment in previous Chinese infrastructure investments, rising corporate debt and corruption. If the BRI worsens this phenomena, the consequent financial and economic crisis in China is likely to have serious contagion effects with global ramifications. Second, trade brings about winners and losers within a country and unless there is adequate redistribution of the gains within an economy it can lead to increased inequality, poverty and structural unemployment. Finally, there are negative consequences to the environment that trade expansion may bring about unless effective legal, political and economic institutions are in place addressing the issue.