Long and short-distance internal migration motivations in post-apartheid Namibia: a gravity model approach

The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse the region-level differences that explain internal migration in post-apartheid Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding whether there are differences in motivations for long and short-distance migration. Given Namibia’s history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances travelled differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analysing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances moved, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes. Migration volumes also increase when the sending constituency shares a border with another country.