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Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world

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  • Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte

Abstract

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte, 2017. "Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 155-170, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:155-170
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1294701
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    1. Brown, John C. & Guinnane, Timothy W., 2003. "Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition," Center Discussion Papers 28392, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    2. John C. Brown & Timothy W. Guinnane, 2003. "Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility," Working Papers 869, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
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