Taking critical junctures seriously: theory and method for causal analysis of rapid institutional change

Social, political, and economic change sometimes occurs during relatively brief periods in which previously relatively stable institutions are transformed and new approaches established. Historical institutionalists refer to these as critical junctures. Processes of incremental revision and evolution are also important, but if critical junctures sometimes produce enduring legacies, then these processes of rapid institutional change are an important topic for research and theory development. Planning history offers many examples of such relatively short periods of significant change that produced lasting and distinct outcomes in different jurisdictions. The study of critical junctures has been a major theme of comparative historical analysis and historical institutionalism for three decades. This has contributed to the development of robust conceptual frameworks detailing the structure and mechanisms of such change processes and associated research methods that are valuable for planning history and comparative urban research. This paper reviews this research, develops a conceptual framework relevant to planning history and urban governance, and points to processes of rapid institutional change characteristic of cities, suggesting that planning and urban institutions are particularly prone to critical junctures because of multi-level governance contexts, urban complexity, the impacts of urban disasters, and the challenges presented by urbanization and technological and social change.