The Hardening of the American Landscape

Problem, research strategy, and findingsPatterns of change in urban surfaces have implications for equity, health, and environmental quality in future cities and for their adaptability to climate change. Relatively little detailed research has been done on the role of land use policies—particularly the recent generation of infill and climate adaptation policies—in shaping urban surfaces and related environmental systems. I used a novel approach integrating three methods—land use change models, urban form assessments, and policy-based scenarios—to evaluate patterns of change. I applied these methods to a case study simulation of future development in Denver (CO) and used a stormwater management example to evaluate the capacity of the local management system to treat expansion of the city’s hardscape. I found that the proportion of impervious cover in the city is projected to increase substantially, possibly to levels discussed in the literature as severely affected. A major social commitment to adaptation policies such as green infrastructure would be necessary to mitigate projected hardscape increases. Dispersed development strategies generate substantially more hardscape than geographically targeted development, which suggests that there is also untapped potential for climate adaptation in general land use policy. I share common limitations of scenario-based methods.Takeaway for practiceChanges in the composition of urban surfaces in the next 2 decades could have significant environmental effects. In this research, I developed and tested methods that bridge infrastructure and land use planning practices—the public works and community planning silos in local governments—to evaluate these processes and effects. These methods should be useful in many cities.