Do Local Development Outcomes Follow Voluntary Regional Plans? Evidence From Sacramento Region's Blueprint Plan

Problem, research strategy, and findings: We examine the post-plan impacts of the Sacramento region's 2004 Blueprint, a widely celebrated regional process, to better understand the impact of regional planning on local development patterns. We assess whether residential development after the plan was adopted (2004-2011) occurred in neighborhoods that better met Blueprint principles. We also assess whether the locations of post-plan residential development better met the priorities of Blueprint than pre-plan development (2001-2003), comparing these results by jurisdictions. The focus on residential developments limits our assessment; our use of census tract data as a proxy for neighborhood may also be problematic. We find that neighborhoods that best met Blueprint principles did not receive most new residential development. Moreover, highly rated neighborhoods received less residential development after the regional plan was adopted than before. However, some residential development did locate in neighborhoods that better met some plan principles: transportation choice, housing choice and diversity, and use of existing assets. In addition, development in some jurisdictions did follow Blueprint more than others. We conclude that some principles are easier to implement in some regions and in some local jurisdictions because of place-specific needs or the parochial interests of local jurisdictions. Takeaway for practice: Planners should continually promote and advocate for regional principles while encouraging plan adoption at the local level by giving priority to principles with the most local support or support in specific jurisdictions as they negotiate interests in conflict. Planners should evaluate plan impacts to improve their own effectiveness regionally and to improve regional planning processes in general.