The political economy of Angolan growth: Social & regional structure

Too often macroeconomic trends and long term growth prospects are considered in isolation from the very real effect of the physical, social and economic structures. This is particularly so in the case of Angola as its huge flows of revenue from mineral exports collide with the legacy of external debt. However, the interaction of the overarching macro trends with existing political and regional divisions magnifies the difficulties of resolving either the economic or the political problems that have prevented progress for several decades. This paper discusses the ways in which the political divides that have existed for centuries not only remain important even in the post-colonial era, but interact with macroeconomic trends to generate a path of growth and development that is unique to Angola. It is argued that a long term political accommodation involving a solution to Angola's internal political tensions requires addressing all of these issues simultaneously since they all contribute to the current problems and line up precisely the same groups in opposition to each other. These ‘axes of polarisation’ include coastal vs. interior, rural vs. urban/industrial, Mbundu/mestiço vs. Ovimbundu and MPLA vs. UNITA. This discussion proposes a way to overcome these problems and achieve sustained long-term growth.