China’s capital account liberalization: a ruby jubilee and beyond

Since Reform and Opening-up in late 1978, China has gradually opened many parts of its capital account, but the progress has been slower and bumpier than its current account liberalization. We review China’s four decades of capital account opening-up through the lens of three recurring debates. First, how open is China’s capital account and how much more needs to be done? Second, how committed is China to opening its capital account? Third, is China ready, and how to liberalize its capital account further? From China’s experience we draw good, bad, and ‘ugly’ lessons that answer to these three debates, and shed light on China’s capital account policy going forward. We conclude that policymakers are committed to opening up China’s capital account further. With the capital flow management framework upgraded, the challenge lies in coordinating capital account liberalization with financial and exchange rate reforms. The troika of a near-fully open capital account, a flexible exchange rate, and monetary independence best serves China’s long-term interests.