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Intercity Population Migration Conditioned by City Industry Structures

Author

Listed:
  • Yuxia Wang
  • Xia Li
  • Xin Yao
  • Shuang Li
  • Yu Liu

Abstract

One of the key concerns in geographical and social sciences is to analyze and predict population migration due to its close association with urban planning, industrial upgrade, and urban development. Although the most prevailing framework, the gravity model, has been applied in its various versions, there is little information available about how city industry structure functions as the invisible distance in the modeling of intercity population migration. Here, we introduce a family of improved gravity models by considering city industry structure proximity, complementarity, and diversities. The resulting models predict population migration patterns in good agreement with the flows observed. Our best model (GM_COM) outperforms the benchmark model (GM_O) by 24.6 percent in terms of mean absolute percentage error. Further analysis shows the improved models offer several advantages with respect to the base models. They have better prediction accuracies for flows with high intensities and long distances. The best model demonstrates obvious improvement when flows occur in eastern China. Given the significant improvement of the proposed models, this study broadens existing research by absorbing city industry structure features into the gravity model and deepens our understanding in the population migration as a function of distance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuxia Wang & Xia Li & Xin Yao & Shuang Li & Yu Liu, 2022. "Intercity Population Migration Conditioned by City Industry Structures," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(5), pages 1441-1460, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:raagxx:v:112:y:2022:i:5:p:1441-1460
    DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2021.1977110
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    Cited by:

    1. Anqi Xu, 2023. "Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Inter-county Migration in California: A Multilevel Gravity Model Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-33, June.
    2. Yanxi Wang & Yunxia Zhuo & Tao Liu, 2022. "Population Dynamics in China’s Urbanizing Megaregion: A Township-Level Analysis of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Xinya Wang & Yizhao Chen, 2024. "More Rational, More Attractive: Industrial Structure Rationalization and Migrant Workers’ Employment Choices in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-20, March.

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