Large returns, conditional correlation and portfolio diversification: a value-at-risk approach
AbstractThis paper, using daily returns on 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks for the period 1991-1999, investigates the possibility of portfolio diversification when there are negative large movements in the stock returns (i.e.�when the market is bearish). We estimate the quantiles of stock return distributions using non-parametric and parametric methods that are widely being used in measuring value-at-risk (VaR). We find that the average conditional correlation of 30 stocks is much higher when the large movements are negative than that when the market is 'usual'. Further, we find that, contrary to the results of previous studies, there is no notable difference between the average conditional correlations when the large movements are positive and when the market is 'usual'. Moreover, it is evident from the results of the conditional CAPM that the portfolio's diversifiable and non-diversifiable risks, as measured by the error variance of the CAPM and beta respectively, are highly unstable when the market is bearish than that when it is 'usual' or bullish. The overall results suggest that the possibility of portfolio diversification would be eroded when the stock market is bearish. These findings have implications for portfolio diversification and risk management in particular and for finance in general. The ideas presented in this paper can be utilized for testing contagion in the international financial markets, a much-researched topic in international finance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.
Volume (Year): 1 (2001)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111405
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Brière, Marie & Chapelle, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2012.
"No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1729-1744.
- Szafarz, Ariane & Chapelle, Ariane & Brière, Marie, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Open Access publications from UniversitÃ© Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/7746, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Marie Brière & Ariane Chapelle & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," DULBEA Working Papers 08-22.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Marie Brière & Ariane Chapelle & Ariane Szafarz, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Working Papers CEB 12-010, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Investigating Extreme Dependences: Concepts and Tools," Papers cond-mat/0203166, arXiv.org.
- Szego, Giorgio, 2002. "Measures of risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1253-1272, July.
- Wagner, Niklas & Aboura, Sofiane, . "Extreme Asymmetric Volatility, Leverage, Feedback and Asset Prices," Open Access publications from UniversitÃ© Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/1616, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Szafarz, Ariane & Brière, Marie, 2008.
"Crisis-Robust Bond Portfolios,"
Open Access publications from UniversitÃ© Paris-Dauphine
urn:hdl:123456789/7748, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Szego, Giorgio, 2005. "Measures of risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 5-19, May.
- Adam, Alexandre & Houkari, Mohamed & Laurent, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1870-1882, September.
- Yang, J-H.S. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "Endogenous Correlation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2007. "Co-movement in the price of risk of aggregate equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 256-271, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.