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Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting

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  • Masayuki Kakehashi
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    Abstract

    Realistic models have a larger number of parameters than simple models do. In such realistic models some of the parameter values will be less realistic because of the availability and the difficulty in estimation. On the contrary, a simple model with a smaller number of parameters of which reliable values are available can make reliable prediction if the simple model has involved the essential structure of phenomena. In this paper we propose a simple pair formation model for HIV spread by heterosexual transmission. By setting the parameters involved in the model as close as the actual situation in Japan, we examined whether the outcome is consistent with the observation. The outcome suggested plausible range for some unknown parameters. How to deal with inevitably ambiguous parameters is discussed. The model is ready to be used for other countries than Japan and the validity of such an analysis is also discussed.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Mathematical Population Studies.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 279-292

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:279-292

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    Keywords: HIV; mathematical model; pair formation; prediction; Japan;

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