Monitoring the course of the HIV-1 epidemic: The influence of patterns of fertility on HIV-1 prevalence estimates
AbstractAn age structured model of heterosexual HIV-1 transmission is used to explore the impact of observed patterns of fertility on measures of HIV prevalence derived from child bearing women. Observed reductions in fertility caused by women being outside sexual unions before the age of 20 years, the influence of bacterial sexually transmitted infections and the influence of HIV associated morbidity are all included in the model. We illustrate how the biases in prevalence estimates for a localised epidemic can change with time since the start of the epidemic. As the average age of HIV infected women increases, the over-estimate of prevalence from antenatal clinic samples first increases and then declines. This works in opposition to the influence of HIV-1 on fertility, which causes HIV-1 prevalence to be under-estimated initially. Additionally a reduction in fertility associated with bacterial infection in the highest sexual activity classes causes a substantial under-estimate of HIV prevalence initially, but with the greater HIV associated mortality in this population the bias reduces rapidly.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Mathematical Population Studies.
Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/GMPS20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.