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A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application

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Author Info

  • Zeng Yi
  • James Vaupel
  • Wang Zhenglian
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of households, their members, and population structure, using data that are usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and three-generation households are both important. The illustrative application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the elderly.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525432
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Mathematical Population Studies.

    Volume (Year): 6 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 187-216

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:187-216

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    Related research

    Keywords: Household; Projection; Consistency; Scenarios; Policy; Ageing;

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    Cited by:
    1. Yi Zeng & Kenneth Land & Zhenglian Wang & Danan Gu, 2013. "Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach," Demography, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 827-852, June.

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