Container vessels diversion pattern to trans-Arctic shipping routes and GHG emission abatement potential

Global shipping pattern is widely used to assess vessel-borne pollution risk and inform environmental policymaking. Due to ice retreat under climate change, new trans-Arctic navigation routes may become feasible and change the shipping and pollution pattern. Motivated by inconsistent conclusions on the economic feasibility of Arctic routes of the literature, this article performs modelling to examine the potential for general diversion pattern to the trans-Arctic routes of the global shipping traffic. While we find some trans-Arctic routes are economically feasible, the diversion potential of trans-Arctic routes may be overestimated. The sample in this work contains 522,691 shipping moves. Results show that a mere 83 moves would reduce distance and 45 would save sailing time through the Arctic; however, 20 moves would reduce shipping cost. Though few diversions may happen, we find that 20 economically feasible trans-Arctic diversions reduce GHG emissions. Their average fuel consumption reduction through the Arctic is 264 metric tons (MT) (reduced by 26%); the range is 125–328 MT. The average CO2e emission is 767 MT (reduced by 24%); the range is 359–954 MT. Most of these voyages are between North America and East Asia. Ship operators may consider making a diversion to achieve the GHG abatement goal.