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A Building Cycle Model for an Imperfect World

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  • Richard Barras

Abstract

A model of the building cycle is presented, expressed in terms of endogenous fluctuations in development activity, vacancy and rents around an equilibrium growth path. The dynamic behaviour of the model is determined by lags in three adjustment processes: the occupier response to changes in rents, the development response to demand changes mediated through a rent adjustment process, and the construction delay between starts and completions. The frequency and severity of the cycle depend upon the values of five key parameters including the construction lag and the transmission coefficient linking vacancy to development starts. The model has been fitted to data for the City of London office market, yielding estimates for key parameters that are consistent with its observed cyclical behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Barras, 2005. "A Building Cycle Model for an Imperfect World," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2-3), pages 63-96, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:22:y:2005:i:2-3:p:63-96
    DOI: 10.1080/09599910500453905
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Olszewski & Jacek Łaszek & Joanna Waszczuk, 2023. "An unequal reaction of housing starts to house prices in different regions of Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(4), pages 437-458.
    2. Yuqing Hu & Piyush Tiwari, 2021. "Examining the Macroeconomic Determinants of Property Cycles in Australia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(2), pages 293-322.
    3. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 80-101, July.
    4. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
    5. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "Asymmetric Space Market Adjustment in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    6. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
    7. Franz Fuerst & Anna-Maija Grandy, "undated". ""Oft Expectation Fails": A Time-Series Analysis of Construction Starts in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2010-13, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    8. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

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