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A cross-sectional model of rents in urban retail centres

Author

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  • Mark Robertson
  • Colin Jones

Abstract

This paper sets out to assess the underlying influences on urban retail rents. A cross-sectional model of retail rents is developed and tested for 29 Scottish towns in 1989 using regression analysis. A series of specific variables are constructed for these towns partly by reference to a gravity submodel. The model attempts to assess the relative significance of demand in the form of local turnover and supply constraints, and demonstrate the role of business rates in the determination of urban retail rents. The results reveal the dominant influence of demand/turnover on local urban rents. The analysis also shows, through the improved explanatory power of the regression model incorporating business rates, the role of the rent surplus theory in the determination of rents. Finally, the retail stock at the margin is also found to be a significant, if minor factor, in the determination of urban rents. There are difficulties in interpreting this in cross-sectional analysis, but it does, at least, indicate that development constraints mean that supply does not necessarily adjust to demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Robertson & Colin Jones, 1999. "A cross-sectional model of rents in urban retail centres," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-66, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:16:y:1999:i:1:p:51-66
    DOI: 10.1080/095999199368256
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine Jackson, 2001. "A Model of Spatial Patterns across Local Retail Property Markets in Great Britain," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(9), pages 1445-1471, August.
    2. Catherine Jackson & Craig Watkins, 2007. "Supply-Side Policies and Retail Property Market Performance," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(5), pages 1134-1146, May.
    3. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Catherine Jackson & Craig Watkins, 2005. "Planning Policy and Retail Property Markets: Measuring the Dimensions of Planning Intervention," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(8), pages 1453-1469, July.
    5. Catherine Jackson, 2002. "Classifying Local Retail Property Markets on the Basis of Rental Growth Rates," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 39(8), pages 1417-1438, July.

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